Seasonality of Respiratory Syncytial Virus — United States, 2017–2023

Each week, participating clinical and public health laboratories voluntarily report to NREVSS aggregate numbers of RSV PCR tests performed and numbers of positive test results. Although antigen tests are sometimes performed, this analysis was restricted to PCR tests because they accounted for >90% of tests reported (9). Surveillance years were defined based on troughs in RSV circulation. During 2017–2020 (the prepandemic period), surveillance years began in early July (epidemiologic week 27) and ended the following year in late June (week 26). Because the typical winter RSV epidemic was absent during 2020–21, and the 2021–22 epidemic began in the spring, the 2021–22 and 2022–23 surveillance years (pandemic period) were defined as early March (week 9) to late February (week 8) of the following year.^§ Several methods for characterizing RSV seasonality were explored (Supplementary Table 1, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/126381) (Supplementary Table 2, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/126380). A 3% test positivity threshold was chosen because it prospectively identified a high proportion of annual RSV detections during epidemic periods of moderate duration. The epidemic onset and offset (or end) weeks were defined, respectively, as the first and last of 2 consecutive weeks when the percentage of PCR tests positive for RSV was ≥3%. The epidemic duration was the inclusive number of weeks between onset and offset. The peak was defined as the week with the highest percentage of PCR tests positive for RSV.

Epidemic onset, offset, peak, and duration were identified for each season at the national level and by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) region.^¶ Because patterns of weekly RSV circulation in Alaska, Florida, and Hawaii are different from those in other states within their assigned regions (HHS Regions 10, 4, and 9, respectively), these states were excluded from regional analyses. State-level seasonality for Florida is reported; however, an insufficient number of laboratories in Alaska and Hawaii consistently reported PCR data to present state-level seasonality in those states. The analysis included data from laboratories that consistently conducted PCR testing.** This activity was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.^††

During the period with weeks ending July 8, 2017–February 25, 2023, five distinct RSV epidemics occurred: three before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017–18, 2018–19, and 2019–20) and two during the pandemic (2021–22 and 2022–23). Using the 3% epidemic threshold, no seasonal RSV epidemic was observed to occur during the 2020–21 surveillance year. The number of tests performed increased substantially during the pandemic.

Nationally, RSV epidemics during the 3 surveillance years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (2017–2020) began in October, peaked in December, and lasted a median of 27 weeks before the offset during March–April (Table). In contrast, the 2021–22 epidemic began 21 weeks earlier (May), peaked in July, and lasted 33 weeks until January 2022, although the peak percentage of RSV-positive PCR results (15%) was comparable with that during prepandemic seasons (Figure 1). During the 2022–23 surveillance year, onset occurred in June, the proportion of positive PCR results peaked in November, and the peak was higher (19%) than that during prepandemic seasons (range = 13%–16%). The epidemic lasted 32 weeks until the offset occurred in January.

In both the prepandemic and pandemic periods, RSV epidemics began earliest in Florida and the Southeast and later in regions further north and west. During the Florida prepandemic seasons, the median onset occurred in August, the peak occurred in November, and the epidemic continued until March (median duration = 30 weeks) (Table) (Supplementary Figure, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/126382). In the 10 HHS regions (excluding Alaska, Florida, and Hawaii), the median onset ranged from September in Region 4 to December in Region 8. The median epidemic peaks ranged from November in Region 6 to February in Regions 8 and 9. Median offsets ranged from March in Region 5 to May in Region 7; offsets occurred 2–6 weeks earlier during the 2019–20 surveillance year (i.e., when the COVID-19 pandemic began) compared with the preceding 2 surveillance years. The shortest epidemic periods occurred in Region 10 (median = 21 weeks), and the longest occurred in Region 4 (median = 27 weeks).

During the 2021–22 (pandemic) surveillance year, epidemic onsets across the 10 HHS regions and Florida occurred a median of 20 weeks earlier (range = 13–25 weeks) than the median onsets during the prepandemic period (range = March [Florida] to August [Region 10]). Epidemic peaks also occurred earlier than they did during the prepandemic years, ranging from July in Region 6 to December in Region 10. Offsets ranged from November (Region 4) to February (Region 9), which is when prepandemic peaks typically occurred. During the 2021–22 surveillance year, the epidemic durations were a median of 6 weeks longer than the median durations of prepandemic RSV epidemics (range = 21 weeks [Region 2] to 38 weeks [Florida]).

During the 2022–23 season, early epidemic onsets (April–June) were observed in Florida and HHS Regions 3, 4, and 6, but the percentage of RSV-positive PCR test results levelled off before increasing again in September (Figure 1) (Table). In other regions, epidemics began between August and October. Seasons peaked from October in Region 4 to November in regions further north and west (Regions 2, 8, 9, and 10). Epidemics ended between December and February.

Discussion