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IHME produced its latest COVID-19 model run on September 9. Key takeaways:
- Global infections peaked in August and are currently declining. We expect infections to increase in the Northern Hemisphere in October through the end of 2022, but we do not expect this to lead to major increases in severe disease and death.
- The best measure at this point is hospital admissions with COVID, but this data is limited. More emphasis should be placed on reporting this metric, broken down by numbers of patients admitted to the hospital for COVID (to track severe COVID) and patients who are admitted for another cause but also test positive for COVID (to track community infection rates).
- In this release, we updated the model to distinguish between the BA.1/B.2 and BA.5 invasion dates of the Omicron variant. Previously, the model did not differentiate between Omicron variant surges.
Créditos: Comité científico Covid