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IHME released its latest COVID-19 model projections today on July 19. Key takeaways:
- The spread of the BA.5 Omicron subvariant, combined with a decrease in social distancing, is fueling a surge in many parts of the world, including Latin America, North America, Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. Based on the experience of countries with earlier BA.5 surges, we do not expect a large increase in deaths due to COVID-19.
- Self-administered rapid antigen tests are not always reported in official data, leading to the emergence of different patterns in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across nations. Our current ability to make sense of the pandemic has declined as nations’ data systems have become less comparable during the Omicron period.
- We made a few alterations to our model assumptions, including adding an estimate for an additional vaccination dose (second booster shot) to the reference scenario.
Créditos: Comité científico Covid